Thursday, May 19, 2011

EPL: Final Round Preview - What's Still at Stake?

The final round of the English Premier League will be played on Sunday May 22nd, with all games played at 4pm. With the Championship clinched by Manchester United, and the FA Cup headed early to Manchester City, attention for many will have shifted elsewhere. However, there is still much at stake, and not just in the crucial relegation matches.

Final Champion's League automatic qualification - United are first, Chelsea second and the third placed finisher will avoid the qualification to which the fourth placed finisher will be subjected. Manchester City have edged a point in front of Arsenal, although Arsenal have the better goal difference, so Arsenal need to better City's result, while a win for City would seal the deal. Both sides are away to teams safe in mid-table, City at Bolton and Arsenal at Fulham.

Final Europa League place - with the other two spots going to the League Cup winner's Birmingham, and FA Cup runner-up Stoke City (winner Man City already off to UCL), Liverpool and Tottenham will contest for fifth spot in the table and the final place in Europe. Tottenham have edged back in front of Liverpool after their surprise win at Anfield, replicating the Arsenal/Man City position with a one point buffer, but inferior goal difference. Tottenham are at home, but pitted against a desperate for survival Birmingham (see below). Liverpool  are away to Aston Villa who are safe from the drop despite a disappointing season.

Relegation - given the Premier League riches at stake, the importance of these games is huge to the clubs involved, if somewhat irrelevant to the vast swathes of fans and observers with eyes focused on Europe and the top of the table teams. West Ham's relegation has been confirmed, but the other two spots are still well and truly open. Wigan and Blackpool are 18th and 19th now, level on 39 points with Birmingham. Goal difference is extremely close (W -22, Bl -21, Bi -20), so theoretically Wigan could still lose and stay up. Wigan are away to Stoke, Blackpool away to Manchester United (gulp) and Birmingham away to Spurs (see above). It's easy to imagine a Wigan draw, with the others losing and being relegated. The other two teams involved are Wolves and Blackburn, only one point higher - and they are meeting, with Wolves at home. A draw could see both relegated if the three below them all won, so there's plenty to play for here as well. Blackburn's goal difference would protect them if they lost and the teams below drew - Wolves don't necessarily have that luxury with a -19 differential.

So five teams will be sweating on the relegation outcome, with nine of the 20 teams having plenty to play for on Sunday. When the dust settles on Sunday, there will be still one Premier League related game to come. Reading and Swansea City will battle at Wembley on May 30th for the final promotion spot, with QPR and Norwich City already promoted. QPR were last relegated from the top flight in 1996, Norwich in 2005, Reading in 2008 and Swansea in 1983.

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